Mainframe Careers Are Changing, Not Disappearing: What to Expect

Mainframe careers aren’t disappearing. They’re narrowing, deepening, and becoming more demanding.

If you spend any time in tech conversations, you’ve heard the claim that mainframe careers are fading, the talent pool is aging, and the jobs tied to IBM Z won’t survive.

The data tells a different story.

Across multiple global surveys, mainframe careers in 2026 aren’t disappearing – they’re changing shape. Roles now demand broader skills, deeper context, and stronger judgment as the mainframe operates inside hybrid, cloud-integrated enterprise environments. The real question isn’t whether mainframe skills still matter. It’s which skills matter now?

The Bar for Hiring is Higher

Despite years of “decline” narratives, enterprises continue to hire for mainframe roles. In the 2024 Futurum Group Global Mainframe Skills Report, 91% of organizations said they expected to hire mainframe system administrators or application developers within one to two years. However, that job signal comes with a caveat.

“91% of organizations plan to hire mainframe system administrators or application developers within one to two years – even as teams remain lean.”
Source: Global Mainframe Skills Report, Futurum Group

Organizations are hiring into leaner teams. According to Planet Mainframe’s 2025 Arcati Mainframe Navigator, more than half of mainframe user respondents increased spending on IBM Z hardware and software, while 61% reported flat or declining staff budgets. Investment in the platform continues, but headcount growth is not keeping pace.

“More than half of enterprises increased IBM Z spending, while 61% held staffing budgets flat or reduced them.”
Source: Arcati Mainframe Navigator, Planet Mainframe

For professionals, that reality changes the shape of opportunity. Fewer roles exist that focus on a single function. More roles expect mainframe employees to understand performance, security, integration, and automation – as part of the same job. The bar isn’t lower, it’s broader.

The Skills Gap Isn’t About COBOL, it’s About Context

The phrase mainframe skills gap often defaults to legacy programming languages. But again, data point elsewhere.

Kyndryl’s 2025 State of Mainframe Modernization Survey reported that 70% of organizations struggle to find the skills needed to modernize their mainframe environments. The most difficult skills to source weren’t COBOL or PL/I, but AI and generative AI, cloud integration, and systems integration.

“70% of organizations struggle to find the skills required for mainframe modernization – but the hardest gaps to fill are AI, cloud integration, and systems integration, not legacy languages.”
Source: Kyndryl State of Mainframe Modernization Survey

The distinction matters. Enterprises aren’t short on people who can keep systems running. They’re short on professionals who can modernize those systems inside hybrid, regulated, high-stakes environments – without breaking what runs the business.

If your skills sit entirely at one end of the spectrum – either pure legacy or pure cloud – your risk of obsolescence increases. The safest ground is in between.

Hybrid Isn’t a Phase

In 2026, hybrid IT is no longer a transition state or an experiment. It’s the operating model.

Planet Mainframe’s Arcati data show that 71% of organizations run hybrid or cloud-integrated mainframe environments. Kyndryl’s research goes further, reporting that nearly all enterprises operate in hybrid environments. Additionally, more than half of those enterprises increased mainframe usage year over year – even as executives reported a decline in the platform’s perceived strategic importance.

“99% of enterprises now operate hybrid environments, and more than half increased mainframe usage year over year.”
Source: Kyndryl State of Mainframe Modernization Survey

Operational reliance on the mainframe remains strong, particularly for regulated and mission-critical tasks. As a result, mainframe professionals increasingly work at the seams to integrate APIs, support DevSecOps pipelines, improve observability, and align security across platforms.

If your role hasn’t expanded yet, the data suggest it will.

More Talent, Yet a Gap Persists

Here’s the paradox shaping many mainframe careers.

On the education side, progress is real. Approximately 65% of university leaders surveyed by the Futurum Group reported that more skilled mainframe talent is available today than five years ago.

“65% of university leaders report more skilled mainframe talent today than five years ago – yet enterprises still struggle to hire for modern roles.”
Source: Global Mainframe Skills Report, Futurum Group

Yet, on the employer side, pressure is growing to hire from a pool that isn’t available. Arcati respondents concurred, with 62% of organizations citing a lack of modern mainframe skills as their most significant hiring barrier – a sharp increase from just a few years earlier.

The gap isn’t about awareness or interest; it’s about timing and experience. Early-career talent is growing, thanks to universities such as these in Illinois, and senior experts with 20+ years of experience abound. What’s hardest to find are mid-career professionals who understand both legacy systems and modern architectures, people who can translate between worlds.

That scarcity is also where opportunity lives.

Training Is Now Essential to Careers

One of the clearest shifts across all sources is how training is treated.

According to Ensono Strategies for Bridging the Mainframe Skills Gap report, 60% of organizations report working closely with vendors that offer bootcamps, training, or apprenticeship programs. Furthermore, the report shows that companies investing heavily in their mainframe environments are far more likely to meet hiring goals – not because talent suddenly appears, but because visible commitment attracts and retains people.

“Companies investing heavily in their mainframe environments are far more likely to meet hiring goals, because company commitment attracts and retains people.”
Source: Short and Long-term Strategies for Bridging the Mainframe Skills Gap, Ensono

For professionals, the story is written. Career stability increasingly correlates with access to continuous learning and with choosing employers who treat skills development as infrastructure rather than a perk.

In an Infotech Research Group report, Greg Lotko, SVP & GM, Mainframe Software Division at Broadcom Inc., stated, “You can build a talent pool and pipeline if you make it a priority to do so. Those who are willing to take action and have a plan will have a talent plan now and well into the future.”

AI Changes the Work, But it Doesn’t Replace You

AI is no longer theoretical in mainframe environments. Kyndryl reports that nearly nine in ten organizations have deployed or plan to deploy AI or generative AI on the mainframe, with expectations of meaningful cost savings and revenue impact.

At the same time, more than a third of organizations already using AI say skills gaps are slowing progress – particularly around security, integration, and governance. AI doesn’t simplify the work in the way headlines suggest. It raises expectations.

For careers, that means professionals who understand systems, data quality, risk, and accountability become more valuable, not less.

Regulation is a Quiet Career Stabilizer

One of the least discussed – but most powerful – drivers of mainframe career durability is regulation.

In Kyndryl’s survey, 94% of organizations said regulatory compliance directly influences modernization decisions, and nearly a third reported keeping applications on the mainframe specifically for security reasons.

“94% of organizations say regulatory compliance directly influences their mainframe modernization decisions.”
Source: Kyndryl State of Mainframe Modernization Survey

As cyber resilience laws, data protection mandates, and AI governance frameworks expand globally, demand for professionals who can operate in high-trust environments is growing. That demand compounds over time.

What 2026 Demands of You

Taken together, the data are clear. The most resilient mainframe careers belong to professionals who:

• Combine platform depth with hybrid fluency
• Understand security and compliance alongside tooling
• Use AI to extend expertise rather than replace human judgment
• Invest continuously in skills that connect systems rather than isolate them

Mainframe careers aren’t disappearing. They’re narrowing, deepening, and becoming more demanding. For professionals willing to evolve with the work, that’s not a threat. It’s leverage.